Opportunities in the Solar Market for Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 

Introduction

1-1

Chapter 2 

Solar Cell Technology

2-1

2.1 

Introduction

2.1

2.2

Generations of development

2-2

2.2.1

First Generation

2-2

2.2.2

Second Generation

2-2

2.2.3

Third Generation

2-2

2.3

History

2-3

2.4

Theory of Operation

2-4

2.4.1

Simple explanation

2-4

2.4.2

Photogeneration of charge carriers

2-5

2.4.3

Charge carrier separation

2-6

2.4.4

The p-n junction

2-6

2.4.5

Connection to an external load

2-7

2.4.6

Equivalent circuit of a solar cell

2-7

2.5

Solar cell efficiency factors

2-8

2.5.1

Maximum-power point

2-8

2.5.2

Energy conversion efficiency

2-8

2.5.3

Fill factor

2-9

2.5.4

Quantum efficiency

2-9

2.5.5

Comparison of energy conversion efficiencies

2-9

2.5.5.1

Peak watt (or Watt peak)

2-10

2.5.5.2

Solar cells and energy payback

2-12

2.6

Light-absorbing materials

2-12

2.6.1

Bulk

2-13

2.6.1.1

Silicon

2-13

2.6.2

Thin films

2-14

2.6.2.1

CdTe

2-14

2.6.2.2

CIGS

2-15

2.6.2.3 

CIS

2-16

2.6.2.4 

Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) Multijunction

2-16

2.6.2.5 

Light Absorbing Dyes

2-17

2.6.2.6 

Organic/Polymer Solar Cells

2-20

2.6.2.7 

Silicon Thin Films

2-22

2.6.3

Nanocrystalline solar cells

2-25

2.7

Concentrating photovoltaics (CPV)

2-26

2.8

Overview Of Research On Materials And Devices

2-27

2.8.1

Silicon Processing

2-28

2.8.2

Thin-Film Processing

2-31

2.8.3

Polymer Processing

2-32

2.8.4

Nanoparticle Processing

2-32

2.8.5

Transparent Conductors

2-32

Chapter 3 

Solar Cell Manufacturing

3-1

3.1 

Introduction

3-1

3.2 

How Solar Cells Are Made

3-1

3.2.1

Silicon Solar Cell

3-4

3.2.1.1

Polysilicon Production

3-4

3.2.1.2  

Polysilicon Shortages

3-9

3.2.2 

Etching And Texturing

3-10

3.2.3 

Diffusion And Edge Isolation

3-11

3.2.4 

Anti-Reflection Coating

3-11

3.2.5 

Metallization

3-11

3.3 

Case Study – First Solar

3-12

3.3.1 

Deposition

3-14

3.3.2 

Cell Definition

3-15

3.3.3 

Assembly And Test

3-15

3.3.4 

Raw Materials

3-15

Chapter 4 

Thin Film TechnologY

4-1

4.1

Introduction

4-1

4.2 

Silicon Deposition Technologies

4-5

4.2.1 

Amorphous Silicon Deposition

4-5

4.2.2 

Microcrystalline Silicon Deposition

4-7

4.3 

Compound Semiconductor Deposition Technologies

4-11

4.3.1

Introduction

4-11

4.3.2 

CdTe – Cadmium Telluride

4-19

4.3.3 

CIGS - Copper Indium Gallium Selenide

4-26

4.3.4 

GaAs – Gallium Arsenide

4-34

Chapter 5 

Solar Markets

5-1

5.1 

Introduction

5-1

5.2 

Key Growth Drivers

5-3

5.2.1 

Government Incentives

5-3

5.2.2 

Fossil Fuel Supply Constraints

5-4

5.2.3 

Growing Awareness Of The Advantages Of Solar Power

5-4

5.2.4 

Advances In Technologies

5-5

5.2.5 

Large Market Among Underserved Populations

5-6

5.3 

Challenges Facing The Solar Power Industry

5-7

5.4 

Cost Of A Photovoltaic System

5-8

5.5 

Operating Metrics Of A Photovoltaic System

5-9

5.6 

Types Of PV System

5-10

5.6.1 

Grid Connected Sector

5-10

5.6.2 

Off-Grid Sector

5-12

5.6.3 

Market Development

5-13

5.7 

Market Analysis

5-14

5.7.1 

Solar Cell Market

5-14

5.7.2 

Polysilicon Solar Cell Market

5-27

5.7.3 

Thin Film Solar Cell Market

5-37

5.7.3.1

Driving Forces

5-37

5.7.3.2

Competing Technologies

5-42

5.7.3.3

Third-Generation Technologies

5-48

5.7.4

Consummables For Thin Films

5-50

5.7.4.1 

Indium

5-50

5.7.4.2 

Gallium

5-54

5.7.4.3 

Cadmium

5-57

5.7.4.4 

Tellurium

5-61

5.7.5 

Thin Film Solar Cell Equipment Market

5-66

5.7.6 

Substrates

5-73

Appendix

List of Equipment and Material Suppliers

LIST OF TABLES

3.1

Polysilicon Capacity Forecast

3-6

4.1

Thin Film CIGS Solar Cells Efficiencies

4-14

4.2

Polycrystalline Thin Film PV Modules

4-15

5.1

Efficiency Ranges Of Solar Cells

5-16

5.2

Historic Solar Cell Consumption By Region

5-19

5.3

Solar Cell Producer Shipments

5-20

5.4

Solar Cell Forecast

5-23

5.5

Market Share Of Solar Cells By Technology

5-25

5.6

Polysilicon Production Capacities By Company

5-28

5.7

Solar Power And Polysilicon Consumption Forecast

5-32

5.8

Thin Film Solar Cell Producers

5-38

5.9

Cost Comparison Of Thin Film Technologies

5-47

5.10

Production Figures For Indium

5-53

5.11

Production Figures For Gallium

5-56

5.12

Production Figures For Cadmium

5-60

5.13

Production Figures For Tellurium

5-65

5.14

Affect Of Substrate Material On CIGS Solar Efficiency

5-76

LIST OF FIGURES

2.1

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies

2-11

2.2

Dye Sensitized Solar Cell Schematic

2-19

2.3

Bulk Heterojunction Solar Cell

2-21

2.4

Schematic Of Sliver Cell

2-30

3.1

Diagram Of Solar Cell

3-2

3.2

Cross Section Of A Solar Cell Under Illumination

3.3

3.3

Polysilicon Manufacturing And Supply Chain

3-8

3.4

First Solar’s Production Line

3-13

4.1

Sharp’s Triple-Junction Solar Cell

4-8

4.2

Factory Flow For 20 MW/Year CGS Facility

4-10

4.2

Schematic Of CdTe And Cigs Device Structures

4-16

4.3

CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD

4-22

4.4

CdTe Thin Film Deposition By Close Space Sublimation (CSS) Schematic

4-23

4.5

CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD2

4-25

4.6

CIGS Deposition System By Evaporation

4-28

4.7

Cross-Sectional Schematic Diagram Of The InGaP/InGaAs/Ge ATJ Cell

4-36

5.1

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies

5-17

5.2

Historic Solar Cell Consumption By Region

5-21

5.3

Solar Cell Production By Type

5-24

5.4

Thin Film Solar Cell Production By Type

5-26

5.5

Polysilicon Capacity Market Share

5-29

5.6

Polysilicon Capacity Market Share

5-30

5.7

Polysilicon Consumption In Grams Per W And Production (MT)

5-33

5.8

Polysilicon Production And Consumption (MT)

5-35

5.9

Best Research-Thin Film Cell Efficiencies

5-43

5.10

Schematic Diagrams Of Thin-Film CdTe, CIGS, and a-Si Thin Film PV Devices

5-44

5.11

Thin Film Solar Cell Power As A Percentage Of Total Solar

Power

5-49

5.12

Schematic Thin-Film Roll-To-Roll Equipment

5-67

5.13

Market Forecast for Solar Cell Production Equipment

5-72